Probability

=Topic= Probability =Grade/Subject= 8th grade/Math =School= Durham Middle School Hightower Middle School =Email= barbara.snidow@cobbk12.org brian.lewis@cobbk12.org kelly.drawdy@cobbk12.org may.davis@cobbk12.org =Strategies= Anticipation Guide - students will complete a true/false assessment of the unit.[|antic gude.doc]

Exit Ticket - students will compare/contrast outcomes (counting principle vs. tree diagram) using venn diagrams.

Learning Tasks - Heads Win [|Headswinstask[1.doc]] and Mrs. Loves Children[|Mrsloveschildrentask[1.doc]]

Graphic Organizer - used for notes on addition counting principle[|additioncountingprinciple[1.doc]] and multiplication counting principle[|multiplicationcountingprinciple[1.doc]]

=Summary= By completion of this lesson, students should be able to: determine the sample space for an event; construct & use tree diagrams; and select the appropriate principle (addition or multiplication) to calculate the number of outcomes. Students will need to understand the difference between “or” and “and” probability events. P(A or B)=P(A) + P(B). P(A and B)=P(A)·P(B) By the completion of this lesson, students should be able to find the probability of a simple and compound independent event and use technology/manipulatives to simulate probability events.

=Standards= M8D2: a. Use tree diagrams to find the number of outcomes. b. Apply the addition and multiplication principles of counting M8D3: a. Find the probability of simple independent events. b. Find the probability of compound independent events Set Theory M8D1: a. Demonstrate relationships among sets through use of Venn diagrams. b. Determine subsets, complements, intersection, and union of sets. c. Use set notation to denote elements of a set. =Assessments=
 * Event Outcomes**
 * Laws of Probability**

Warm Up [|fordchoices[1.doc]] Exit Ticket [|countingtotd[1.doc]] Error Analysis [|restuaranttree[1.doc]] Quiz [|treecone[1.doc]]

=Essential questions= How do we use probability to make plans and predictions of future events? How can we use set notation to compare and contrast elements within a given set? =Resources=
 * Holt Mathematics Course 3 Text: Chapter 10 lesson 8
 * Kay Toliver video “Principles of Counting”-can be checked out through C & I
 * [|TI Probability Simulations]
 * []
 * []
 * []
 * []
 * http://www.shodor.org/interactivate/discussions/ProbabilityOfSimulta/

=Flexible grouping/Independent= Heterogeneous grouping for introductions scenarios. Individual grouping for Mrs Love's Children Learning styles grouping for counting principle and tree diagram scenarios.

= = =Differentiation plan for gifted learners= Problems with compound events (independent and dependant events) Created fair games with polyhedra dice Extension of fair game performance task “The Hopper” Enriched assessments (tests and quizzes) =Higher order thinking skills= =Lesson Plan= DAY ONE Warm up: 5 minutes--fractions Anticipation Guide: 10 min Introduce Counting Principle: 20 minutes Notes: 10 minutes Step by step format Exit Ticket: compare and contrast
 * Application: Create a tree diagram to show the counting principle
 * //Comprehend:// Describe different combinations to name Mrs. Love's Children
 * //Synthesize:// Explain why a tree diagram or a counting principle would be more effective in certain situations
 * //Evaluate:// Create a poster from the restaraunt and justify the menu created
 * spinners/ dice/clothing
 * scenarios

DAY TWO Warm up: 5 minutes-- Ford counting principle Finish notes: 10 minutes Performance task: 30 minutes Mrs Love's Children Exit ticket 3-2-1
 * addition
 * multiplication
 * tree diagrams

DAY THREE Warm up 5 minutes Groupwork: 20 minutes Scenarios on counting principle and tree diagram Technology extension: 10 minutes TI-83 probability simulator Performance tasks: 10 minutes Head's Win Homework: Tree diagram practice Auto/Popcorn/Coins